Happy birthday, Lula

Issue #407: Bulgaria voted, Serbia's students ousted the country's longtime leader, and Brazil wrapped up an election so dramatic it deserves its own telenovela. Lula came from behind to beat Flávio Bolsonaro and win a historic fourth term. Intern Cadence Chua and I went deep into (mostly) Brazilian media, so you can make sense of today's headlines: How did he pull it off? What's at stake now?

Also this week: Japan sent a spacecraft to a moon of Mars to bring something back, the woman who twice ran for president in Ecuador is now in jail, Meta got hit with the biggest fine in its history, and Turkish President Erdoğan usually speaks up for Muslim women's right to wear the hijab. So why is he silent about Azerbaijan?

This newsletter has been edited by Jonathan Ramsay.

Brazil picked Lula for the fourth time

What happened: Brazil voted for their next president yesterday, and many had said that it was a race too close to call. In Brazil, if no one gets more than half the votes, the top two candidates face off again a few weeks later. That's what happened here: in the first round on October 4, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro came first, with 2.2 million votes ahead of President Lula. Yesterday, Lula turned it around: He won with 51.8% of the vote against Flávio's 48.2%, almost five million ahead.

BTW: In most of the country, the presidential runoff was the only thing on the ballot. In Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte and Tocantins, and in the DF (the federal district around the capital Brasília), people were also voting for governor, because no one won those races outright on October 4. The other 21 states already picked their governors in the first round.

Why this matters: Lula is the first person ever elected president of Brazil four times. He turns 81 tomorrow, making him the oldest president in the country's history. This is the first time since 1989 that someone came second in the first round and won the runoff.

Good to know: Voting is compulsory in Brazil. For literate citizens aged 18 to 70, it's an obligation, not just a right. It's optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, people over 70, and people who can't read. If you can't vote, for example because you're traveling or living in another city from the one where you're registered, you have to "justify" your absence. If you don't, you pay a (very small, like less than one euro) fine. By noon yesterday, around 2.6 million people had already "justified" their absence.

Tell me more:
There was a lot of drama in the last few hours of the election. Lula's campaign had complained all day that a lack of buses in ten states was keeping voters from the polls, and Flávio's campaign asked for more time in 17 towns hit by heavy rain. Supreme Court Justice and head of the electoral court, Kassio Nunes Marques, did nothing (even though he was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro). Then, right around the 5pm closing time, another Supreme Court Justice, Cristiano Zanin, who also used to be Lula's personal lawyer, extended voting to 7pm across the whole country, a first in Brazil's history. Some polling stations had already closed and started counting, and the official count was stopped for two hours. Judges at Brazil's top courts admit mistakes were made, but rule out annulling the election.

To give you a sense of who was running for the presidency, here's a very short overview:

• Luiz InacioLula da Silva is 80, Brazil's current president, and from the left-wing Workers' Party (PT). In his first two terms (2003-2010), about 40 million Brazilians got out of poverty. This time, many voters said they feel little progress (even though, just recently, Congress changed the Constitution to end the six-day workweek with no pay cut). Lula also spent a year and a half in prison for corruption before his convictions were annulled in 2021.
• Flávio is 45, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the candidate of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL). He's the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing to Lula in 2022 and is under house arrest. Flávio campaigned on public safety, household debt, and food prices.

More generally speaking, the PT and the PL could not be further apart right now. But they used to be a bit more similar. The left in Brazil think that the PT is too moderate (parties like PSOL sit further to the left) and the PL is a pragmatic, deal-making party that took on Bolsonaro's movement (Jair Bolsonaro wasn't in the party until 2021) because it brings votes and money. Centrists think that both parties are similar because they made deals with the same centrão (the bloc of parties that support whoever is in power in exchange for favors; aka "the kingmakers").

How did Lula pull it off?
According to Folha de S. Paulo, it looks like more people showed up. Abstention fell from 21.08% in the first round to 19.11%, a record drop, mostly among groups that leaned towards Lula. After his first-round loss, Lula changed his campaign team and handed the digital strategy to lawmaker André Janones, whose WhatsApp channel "Exército do Lula" (Lula's Army) grew to more than 10 million followers. Students also kicked off huge street protests that didn't rely on unions, ending in a massive rally on São Paulo's Avenida Paulistan on Saturday.

What now?
Here are some highlights:

• The U.S. (under Trump) will have a harder time getting involved in Brazilian politics because Lula doesn't adopt their viewpoint as readily. This also means, no "Shield of the Americas."
• More money for workers, more taxes for the rich. The PT's slogan for 2026 (and 2022): "put the poor in the budget and the rich in income tax." Since January, people earning up to R$5,000 per month (around 900€) no longer pay income tax, and the minimum wage has gone up faster than inflation in every Lula government, writes Claudia Antunes in Sumauma.
• Better for the Amazon, but not perfect. Lula promises zero net deforestation by 2030. But he also wants to drill for oil near the mouth of the Amazon river, which environmental groups are suing the government over. And even with Lula in office, Congress is expected to allow mining on Indigenous land.
• Constant fights with Congress. Congress has moved clearly to the right (or even far-right), however the outcome...