Can Peru keep this president?

Issue #390: This week, Gishty's Pia Monroy Rodriguez brings us a closer look at two presidential elections in South America that have moved on to head-to-head runoffs. When a country is about to choose its next president, a lot is on the line, from political stability to the direction of future laws and policies. In Peru, a very tight right-wing vs. left-wing race is wrapping up. But the election is about much more than just who wins. In Colombia's recent presidential election, it is very much about that. We're giving you the Who's Who so you're prepared, of course.

Also this week: An election delay in Zimbabwe may buy President Emmerson Mnangagwa some more time in office. Niger Delta communities' lawsuit against Shell sees a new development. A political bromance in Senegal comes to an end. Biological research sees some progress and a concern about border control? And: anti-blackness on Chinese social media, the story of a 9-year-old's migrant journey, what adulthood looks like for an orphan in India, World Cup hype, and 'smart' octopuses.

This newsletter has been edited by Jonathan Ramsay.

Peru's presidential election is incredibly close, but neither candidate scratches the itch

Refresher: Peru voted in April, but no presidential candidate came close to 50%. The had to go on to the second round. In the first round, Keiko Fujimori (a right-wing candidate and daughter of former authoritarian president Alberto Fujimori) came first with about 17%, Roberto Sánchez (a left-wing former minister) second with about 12%. That means over 70% of voters chose someone else. The second round happened yesterday on June 7.

Did you know? Peru has mandatory voting. People have to vote, or else they pay fines between €7 and €28 (approximately). You can even take time off work for this. Also, you're not allowed to sell/buy/drink alcohol between June 6 and June 8.

What happened:
On Sunday evening (19:13 Lima time), exit polls and flash counts gave a strong indication that Keiko Fujimori had won the second round. However, news organizations hadn't called it yet. The race was still very close, with La República reporting that Fujimori had received 54.55%, and Sánchez 45.45% of the vote, according to the official ONPE count. The final election result might take a few days, if not longer. The first round's results took almost a month. With the numbers being this close, it could also be that results are challenged by either candidate.

Why this matters: Peru is going down a very dangerous path right now. Since 2016, the country has had eight presidents. Who wins this election will be the difference between "it's very likely there'll be a tenth president very soon" or "this country is likely to become a lot more authoritarian."

Tell me more:
Popularity-wise, according to a recent poll, people in the capital really liked Fujimori, people in the rural parts of the country really liked Sánchez. Latinoamérica21: "Since 2001, Peruvians have repeatedly voted for what they perceive as the lesser evil"" So, who's the lesser evil this time?

Here are the two main candidates:

• Keiko Fujimori. She's got many fans and many haters. She's been one of the most powerful people in Peruvian politics for years and has tried to become president three times. She was only 19 when her father, President Alberto Fujimori, made her Peru's First Lady after a public falling-out with her mother (Susana Higuchi publicly condemned her husband and divorced). Her father ruled from 1990 to 2000. Some say he's the reason the country is so safe and the economy is so stable. Others see him as an authoritarian leader whose government was involved in corruption and serious human-rights abuses. During his presidency, around 300,000 women, many of them poor and Indigenous, were forcibly sterilized. After leaving office, he fled the country and later went to prison. He died in 2024. Many Peruvians still admire him, and they see her as a continuation of his legacy. Last week, La República found out that, apparently, Daddy Fujimori used secret government funds to pay for her studies in the U.S. Politically, Keiko Fujimori is (also) considered right-wing. Her top focus is security, and her solutions to fight crime are more surveillance and bigger prisons. She's switched up her tone though. Professor Julio Carrión (University of Delaware) tells CNN that her campaign this time is less aggressive. She's apparently even admitted to past political mistakes. If she wins, she could have enough votes (if she aligns with another right-wing party) in the Congress to block any attempts to impeach her. To some voters, this means "finally, stability"; to others: "She might be a little too protected by Congress. This is dangerous, given that she still hasn't fully condemned her father's authoritarian rule enough."
• Roberto Sánchez. His image is that of someone who comes from no money. Used to work as a shoeshine boy as a kid. He's considered left-wing. His topics are: fewer Peruvians who are poor, more support for the rural (Indigenous) communities. In the first round of the election, his campaign was more radical (for example, he was pushing to have the state take over natural resources or rewriting free trade deals). In the second round, that changed (now, he's focused on raising the minimum wage, investing more in education, guaranteeing basic healthcare for 95% of the population, and giving a boost to small businesses and local farmers). He still has one major goal, though: he wants to change the country's constitution, which was put in place back in 1993 by Alberto Fujimori after he shut down congress in a self-coup. When it comes to crime (a major topic for Peruvians), Sánchez wants to focus on the root causes of violence and get local communities involved in security, writes Elisa Villa Román for El País. But: His party won't have a majority in Congress, so even if he wins, he is going to have a really hard time actually passing any of these reforms. One of the most influential investigative journalists in the country, Gustavo Gorriti, in IDL-Reporteros came out in support of Sánchez, but only as a "lesser evil".

So, this is a classic left vs. right election then?
Not so fast, the country's in a bigger mess than that. To understand what's happening in Peru, you need to know: presidents there are surprisingly easy to remove from office. The outcome of this election will determine who is going to become Peru's ninth president in ten years. One resigned amid corruption allegations (something about expensive watches), one tried to dissolve Congress and was arrested, one was accused of rape, one was known for his support for child marriage, and others were impeached. Part of the reason is a very vague (and controversial) rule in the Constitution that allows a majority in Congress to remove a president for "permanent moral incapacity." Supporters argue it helps hold leaders accountable. Critics say it gives Congress too much power. The way lawmakers achieve that majority in Congress is through a loose alliance of a group of political parties that has formed over the past few years to remove presidents from office or pass laws that benefit their own interests. Historically, parliaments are supposed to exist to keep powerful presidents in check so they don't become dictators. But in Peru, the roles have completely flipped. As a result, critics have nicknamed this alliance the "mafia pact," while others describe Peru as a kind of "parliamentary dictatorship" as a result of this very effective alliance. Rodrigo Maruy writes in Verfassungsblog: "Nah, this is not a dictatorship. This is more structural. It is democratic erosion."

Who is part of this alliance in Congress?
At first glance, it looks like it's made up of mostly center-right to far-right parties. But political labels only get you so far in Peru. The country's politics are often driven less by ideology and more by political survival and shifting alliances (have the writers of Game of Thrones based the series on Peru? Very likely). Keiko Fujimori's party, Fuerza Popular, is one of the most influential players in this alliance. But it is far from the only one. Even Perú Libre, the party that brought Castillo to power and includes self-described Marxists, has at times voted alongside Fujimorist forces. Other parties have done the same. Many of these groups have been accused of protecting politicians facing investigations and changing laws in ways that benefit political and business interests rather than the public. Human Rights Watch is very, very worried about what Congress has done in or to Peru.

It gets worse. Starting with this election, the country is back...