Another free trade deal, another "oops"

The plans to create a bigger market between South America and Europe have just become more concrete. Ethiopia, Egypt, South Sudan and Sudan are still figuring out how to share water with one another. Algerians are finding out about sex work under French colonial rule, Ken Saro-Wiwa's sham trial just turned 30, this was an exciting year for African startups, Cuba is now part of the BRICS group (as a side dude), and so much more.

The plans to create a bigger market between South America and Europe have just become more concrete

What happened last week:
Mercosur (a South American trade group composed of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay) and EFTA (a non-EU European trade group made up of Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) just finished negotiating a free trade deal that would open up markets for over 97% of their exports. It still needs approval, but if it goes through, it'll cover nearly 300 million people and over US$4 trillion in economic power.

Why this matters:
The idea that "free trade is always good" has been pushed for decades, but it's more complicated than that. This is a huge trade deal but... it has the potential to skip over who wins and who loses (like any other free trade deal). And often, those losses hit workers, small producers, and the environment, especially in the so-called Global South. So next time you see news about a new trade pact, ask yourself: Whose interests are being served? And who's getting left behind?

Refresher: What's a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?
An FTA is a deal between countries that lowers or removes taxes on goods and services they sell to each other. These taxes are called tariffs. The goal is to make trade easier and cheaper.

Tell me more:
Talks for this deal started a decade ago, but they were stuck for years. Brazil's foreign minister said they're hoping to wrap up the deal later this year, when Brazil takes over Mercosur's rotating presidency, and hopefully finalize the (much larger) EU-Mercosur deal too (that one's been stuck since December because countries like France are worried it could hurt their farmers). The Mercosur-EFTA agreement covers way more than just lower (sometimes no) tariffs on goods like cars, red wine, coffee or beef. It also includes services like consulting, and even intellectual property like patents or copyrights. There's also a chapter on "sustainable development," although it's unclear how strong the enforcement is.

So, who might benefit and who might lose?
Big Business in both trade groups benefit immensely, obviously. Yes, some goods will be cheaper for many people. However, small-scale farmers or workers' rights, for example, will pay a heavy price. Plus, environmental groups and Indigenous people have warned that the deal also lacks strong enforcement on deforestation and climate safeguards. In Norway, one watchdog called it "a lost opportunity to protect the Amazon," since the pact relies on dialogue, not real sanctions, and may actually boost exports of soy and meat linked to forest destruction.

What now?
The deal still has to go through parliaments in all eight countries, plus any required legal reviews. That entire process could stretch into 2026. Essentially, the floor is open, meaning expect lobbying from big exporters, farmers, green groups, workers' unions; everyone's got something to say. This is when public campaigns and policy amendments matter most.

Ethiopia, Egypt, South Sudan and Sudan are still figuring out how to share water with one another

What happened last week:
Ethiopia has finished building the GERD, short for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. It is a US$5 billion mega-dam on the Blue Nile (a key tributary of the Nile River), and Africa's largest hydroelectric project.

Why this matters:
About 250 million people in Nile Basin countries depend on the river for daily needs across Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt.

Tell me more:
Ethiopia's built the dam because of one major reason: To generate electricity. The dam, more than a mile long and 145m high, is on the Blue Nile tributary in the northern Ethiopia highlands, from where 85% of the Nile's waters flow. It will more than double Ethiopia's national power capacity. This is crucial, because 60% of Ethiopians don't have reliable electricity, and this is a massive domestic infrastructure win... for Ethiopia. However, Egypt and Sudan are mad about it.

Why are Egypt and Sudan mad?
Well, both are downstream countries. They rely on Nile water for drinking, farming, and industry. For example, Egypt gets ~97% of its freshwater from the Nile. It has argued that even a 2% drop in flow could wipe out 200,000 acres of farmland. With climate change being real, as Kim Kardashian once tweeted, unpredictable rainfall is, too. So, if Ethiopia decides to store more water in the dam during dry periods, Egypt and Sudan could face water shortages, raising the risk of regional conflict or diplomatic standoffs.

Are they working towards an agreement anytime soon?
In a statement announcing the completion of the project, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sought to reassure his neighbours. "To our neighbours downstream, Egypt and Sudan, our message is clear: the Renaissance Dam is not a threat, but a shared opportunity," he said. They're also both invited to the official inauguration in September (yes, he went there). However, as of right now, no final agreement exists on water sharing, and talks have dragged on for 15 years without resolution.

Good to know:
There is one forward-looking agreement, but it's not very popular. Last year, South Sudan joined a treaty called the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), also known as the Entebbe Agreement. This step finally gave...